Joy and pain.
That’s what football is all about. It’s a package deal; there’s no one without the other and nothing quite encapsulates that as much as a title race. Well, not the title race itself – the end of a title race. When the victors march off with the spoils – and the joy. And the also-rans are left with regret – and pain.
But the race itself? Oh well, the race itself should be all joy and hope. All expectation and anticipation. All jingle jangle of nerves, inane combination XIs and irrational line-up reveal meltdowns. One point separates the three teams left in the mix for the Premier League title as the season enters its home stretch. Ten to go and everything to play for. As a fan, what more could you hope for?
I explored each team’s run-in experience and current form in my last piece, but ultimately, it’s what lies ahead that will determine the destination of the 2023/24 Premier League.
Arsenal lead the way – but only by a nose – and it’s a lead that will be stoutly challenged over the last ten games. They will start with the toughest challenge of all this Sunday at the Etihad against title rivals Manchester City. That’s tough enough – even if the Gunners did beat the defending champions at the Emirates earlier this season – but it’s only the first of five away games against teams in the top ten, including a trip to North London rivals Tottenham.
It looks the toughest run in of the three, but Arsenal have been in great form home and away, scoring for fun on an eight-game winning streak stretching back to January. The added challenge for Mikel Arteta’s team is a schedule that now gets much tighter.
Eleven games in three months is one thing, but running a nine-game gauntlet in April is quite another – especially with the added spice of Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Arsenal’s challenge fell apart in the run in last year when they blew a big lead, but that experience, the availability this year of William Saliba (knock on wood) and the impact of new arrivals Declan Rice and Kai Havertz means they will be better equipped this year.
Manchester City will be just as busy in April, with their continued involvement in both the Champions League (v Real Madrid) and the FA Cup (v Chelsea), but Pep Guardiola’s team have been down this road many times and their schedule – on paper at least – looks easier than that of the Gunners. For one thing, the toughest of their remaining matches are all at home, and only two of their away games are against teams in the top ten.
That said, they still have to travel to Tottenham, who have been a bit of a bogey side in recent times – their 1-0 win here in the FA Cup back in January was their first in six visits. City have been in great form too, winning eight of their last 10 Premier League games, but their two draws – especially the one at home to Chelsea – suggest that they are not quite the ruthless winning machine their reputation alludes to.
The margins may be razor thin, but City trail two teams as we enter the home stretch of an unusual three-way race. It’s not insurmountable, of course, but the champions will need the two teams ahead of them to falter – not just one – if they are to claim a record fourth consecutive title in May. Simply put, if Arsenal or Liverpool win their games, City will not be champions. Agency. That’s what’s at stake for Man City on Sunday.
Liverpool’s schedule will get no easier in April either – they’ve already played 18 games this calendar year – but perversely they should be even better equipped to cope with what lies ahead, especially with several key players returning from injury. That they’ve kept pace despite missing the likes of Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mo Salah for long spells can only bode well as they welcome them back to the fold.
They have to play six top ten teams as well, but three of those games will be at Anfield, where they’re usually strong. Like their title rivals, Jurgen Klopp’s side also have European commitments, but Atalanta shouldn’t be quite as challenging as Bayern and Real Madrid, and that might benefit the Reds. However, they will have challenges too, not least with the two away games against local rivals Everton and arch-enemies Manchester United, and they’ll end the season with a four-match run that includes games against two top four contenders.
So, interesting times ahead. The title race will wind its way through some tough home and away fights, top ten and top four clashes, local derbies and arch-rivalries. Football being football, of course, the decisive games may well happen elsewhere.
After all, we’ve already seen Fulham win at Arsenal, and Liverpool need late goals at Luton and Forest; we’ve seen injury time Arsenal winners at Luton and Brentford, and we’ve seen Man City blow a two-goal lead at home to Crystal Palace. On paper is great, but the real deal happens on grass, where banana skins abound. The joy and the pain will come afterwards.
Ten to go. Enjoy the ride.
