Will Arsenal Form Trump City and Liverpool Experience?

Can the past foretell the future? Or more specifically can it accurately predict the destination of the 2023/24 Premier League title? Conventional wisdom clearly thinks it can, which is partly why the smart money is on Manchester City to successfully defend their crown and seal an unprecedented fourth successive title.

The race is unusual this year though. For one thing, there are still three clear contenders, even with just 10 games left to play. And for another, it’s a very close race with only two points separating current leaders Arsenal and 3rd placed Manchester City as the season enters the home stretch. Liverpool is snugly sandwiched between the two, level on points with the leaders and only second by virtue of an inferior goal difference.



It leaves precious little wriggle room to drop points for any of the three, and it’s no surprise that a track record of negotiating such fine lines would boost any team’s odds of finishing top of the pile.
Manchester City, under Pep Guardiola, have proved time and time again that they have what it takes to survive this precarious high-wire act. Just listen to any pundit and they’ll highlight the Cityzens ability to string together long winning streaks, especially at the business end of the season.



The records bear it out; five of the last six Premier League titles have ended at Etihad for this very reason. Even if the 2018/19 run-in – ten straight wins – stands alone in its immaculacy, the reputation is well earned. Besides, it’s easy to justify the defeats in 2019/20 when the title was already lost, and the defeats in the other two seasons, when the title was already won. This is one of the main reasons why the bookmakers have City as favorites to win it all.

In fact, if it were solely down to precedence, we might as well crown Manchester City champions right now.

But two other factors come into play and Manchester City’s track record might just not be enough this season.

The first factor is Liverpool and their own less heralded, yet quite stellar record of weathering the storm of a season end run-in. Jurgen Klopp’s side have battled Man City to the very last day in two of the last five seasons (ultimately losing out by one point on both occasions) and their record over the last 10 games in recent seasons is even more impressive than that of their Mancunian rivals.



Even in the two seasons when the title was well out of their reach, they’ve displayed the same steely, determined ability to close out seasons in good form, especially in 20/21 when the prize was a seemingly out of reach Champions League spot (they finished third). It’s a little ironic that their worst run-in record in this period came from 2019/20, the season they won the title. Ironic yet understandable; the title was sewn up with six games to play. It’s also the only season of the last five in which Liverpool have lost any of its final ten games of the season. That bodes well for their chances. Point is: Manchester City may be very good at closing out seasons, but so are Liverpool, who lead them by a point as things stand.

The second factor is of course current leaders Arsenal. Now, it would be unfair to compare the Gunners’ recent run-in records to those of their more accomplished rivals.


For one thing, Mikel Arteta is only in his 4th full season as manager, and there just aren’t enough seasons under his belt yet make a fair comparison. For another, his team is young and relatively inexperienced at this level – last season was their first reasonably competitive title tilt and that run-in clearly didn’t go well. Neither did their race for a Champions League place the season before that, when they were again well-placed heading into the final stretch, but ultimately fell short.

What the Gunners lack in track record though, they more than make up for in current form. There has been no better team in the Premier League heading into the final ten games. Indeed, their Premier League record in 2024 has been nothing short of exemplary, allowing them to overcome a five-point deficit and climb back to first place.



Compare the most recent 10 games of each of the contenders and the form difference isn’t that clear; City and Liverpool are in good form too. But Arsenal’s eight wins have come from their last eight matches, in which they’ve scored 33 goals and conceded 4 times, underlining the control and dominance they have had over their opponents. You could argue that it’s been a gentle schedule – five of those teams come from the Premier League’s bottom six. But they also beat Liverpool convincingly and put six past 7th placed West Ham. Away.
Point is: this is a seriously good football team in a seriously rich vein of form, much improved and more experienced than last year’s version, and they are in top spot as things stand.

Can Arsenal keep up the good form as the schedule gets tougher and busier? Will their good form be enough to overcome the experience advantage of Man City and Liverpool?

One thing is clear; it’s not what’s happened in the past that will ultimately decide where this title ends – not the run-in records of seasons past, nor the most recent 10 games of the current season.

Is that stating the obvious?

Ten to go.